Model Hyper Parameters
Training dates 2016-09-01 to 2019-12-30
Lift Analysis
Lift is the expected contribution of the channel to the overall prediction.
“If we removed the channel, what percent of total Submits would we lose?”
|
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
|
(Intercept)
|
-55%
|
-57%
|
-57%
|
|
tv
|
12%
|
11%
|
11%
|
|
semBR
|
3%
|
4%
|
4%
|
|
semNB
|
2%
|
3%
|
3%
|
|
app
|
4%
|
5%
|
8%
|
|
social
|
3%
|
4%
|
6%
|
|
digital
|
NA%
|
NA%
|
NA%
|
|
email_marketing
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
|
email_operational
|
5%
|
3%
|
4%
|
|
email_savedsearch
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
|
SEO_bigcity
|
85%
|
88%
|
86%
|
|
SEO_hdp
|
-29%
|
-29%
|
-28%
|
|
push_android
|
-1%
|
-1%
|
-1%
|
|
push_ios
|
1%
|
1%
|
2%
|
|
nonbrand_queries
|
72%
|
73%
|
77%
|

CPA Analysis
|
date
|
tv
|
semBR
|
semNB
|
app
|
social
|
digital
|
|
2016-09-01
|
$15.41
|
$5.03
|
$41.39
|
$7.25
|
$18.54
|
Inf
|
|
2017-01-01
|
$22.46
|
$5.38
|
$40.58
|
$7.59
|
$20.03
|
Inf
|
|
2018-01-01
|
$25.16
|
$5.81
|
$41.16
|
$7.99
|
$20.59
|
Inf
|
|
2019-01-01
|
$20.93
|
$6.42
|
$41.07
|
$8.06
|
$21.20
|
Inf
|



Error Plot

Variable Analysis
Variable Correlation

Variable plots
Owned
## [1] "email_marketing" "email_operational" "email_savedsearch"
## [4] "push_android" "push_ios"

Search
## [1] "SEO_bigcity" "SEO_hdp" "nonbrand_queries"

Apendix
Seasonal Variable
|
|
Estimate
|
t value
|
Pr(>|t|)
|
|
christmas
|
-9,569
|
-9.842
|
0.000
|
|
easter
|
-4,688
|
-4.503
|
0.000
|
|
fathers
|
-2,657
|
-2.542
|
0.011
|
|
halloween
|
-2,054 *
|
-1.614
|
0.107
|
|
independence
|
-9,477
|
-6.384
|
0.000
|
|
labor
|
-2,591
|
-3.439
|
0.001
|
|
martin
|
1,130 *
|
0.781
|
0.435
|
|
memorial
|
-3,824
|
-4.306
|
0.000
|
|
mothers
|
-3,278
|
-3.124
|
0.002
|
|
new
|
-6,527
|
-6.267
|
0.000
|
|
presidents
|
2,924
|
2.016
|
0.044
|
|
super
|
-801 *
|
-0.551
|
0.582
|
|
thanksgiving
|
-4,569
|
-6.381
|
0.000
|
|
valentines
|
-4,661
|
-3.238
|
0.001
|
|
year2017
|
280 *
|
0.658
|
0.511
|
|
year2018
|
-1,459
|
-2.390
|
0.017
|
|
year2019
|
-5,967
|
-6.930
|
0.000
|
|
month2
|
2,671
|
6.449
|
0.000
|
|
month3
|
1,744
|
4.221
|
0.000
|
|
month4
|
1,310
|
2.818
|
0.005
|
|
month5
|
-1,712
|
-3.602
|
0.000
|
|
month6
|
-1,779
|
-3.523
|
0.000
|
|
month7
|
-203 *
|
-0.394
|
0.694
|
|
month8
|
-638 *
|
-1.431
|
0.153
|
|
month9
|
-2,640
|
-6.608
|
0.000
|
|
month10
|
-3,495
|
-8.047
|
0.000
|
|
month11
|
-4,969
|
-9.611
|
0.000
|
|
month12
|
-7,271
|
-15.097
|
0.000
|
|
wdayMonday
|
3,184
|
7.809
|
0.000
|
|
wdaySaturday
|
-468 *
|
-1.326
|
0.185
|
|
wdaySunday
|
-2,333
|
-5.165
|
0.000
|
|
wdayThursday
|
1,487
|
4.253
|
0.000
|
|
wdayTuesday
|
2,526
|
6.633
|
0.000
|
|
wdayWednesday
|
2,354
|
6.491
|
0.000
|